Commentary: Mariners need more than active trade deadline to outrun Astros in AL West

SEATTLE – Every wave has a crest, its highest point, where the only remaining direction is down.

On the precipice of the second half, have the Mariners already hit it?

It’s possible they reached that point on June 18, when they started a three-game set against the simultaneously surging Guardians. The Mariners had just completed a statement three-game sweep of the World Series champion Texas Rangers, pelting their division competition with superior starting pitching. (Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert surrendered a combined two earned runs in 20 immaculate innings.)

Of course, the Mariners’ momentum continued in Cleveland, as they mauled starter Triston McKenzie for four earned runs in just 21/3 innings in an impressive 8-5 win. On the same day, Seattle simultaneously reached its best record (44-31) and largest division lead (10 games over Houston and Texas). It was the Mariners’ eighth win in their past nine games.

It was also, in a frustrating first half, as good as it got.

But June 18 was meaningful in more ways than one.

Because, while the Mariners were clobbering Cleveland, the 33-40 Houston Astros were being embarrassed by the abysmal Chicago White Sox in a lifeless 2-0 loss. Maybe that indignity appealed to their wounded pride – a blaring alarm bell that finally stirred the snoozing serpent. Maybe the perplexing puzzle pieces finally fell into place.

Whatever the reason: Houston and Seattle darted in opposite directions, starting the following day.

Specifically, the Astros promptly won 10 of their next 11 games, going 17-6 in 23 games before the All-Star break. The Mariners managed an 8-15 record in the same stalling stretch, dropping six consecutive series along the uninspiring way.

Which is how we got here, with the Mariners (52-46) clutching a one-game lead to start the second half, and doing so by hosting a three-game series against those same ascending Astros (50-46). The Rangers, five games back at 46-50, remain in reach as well.

To keep the lead, the Mariners must reach a higher crest.

To do that, they’ll have to hit.

Which, of course, is the story of the season – as the Mariners’ stupendous starting pitching is offset by an offense making frustratingly infrequent contact. To date, the Mariners lead MLB in strikeouts (1,013) and strikeout rate (28.1%), while ranking 25th in on-base percentage (.300), 28th in runs per game (3.87), 28th in slugging percentage (.367), 28th in OPS (.667), and last in doubles (129) and batting average (.219).

On the brighter side, Seattle sits third in hard-hit rate (42.3%) and fifth in average exit velocity (89.0 mph). So when the M’s hit it, they hit it hard.

But it’s far too hard to hit it.

And it’s easy, from a fan’s perspective, to assume the Mariners’ chances hinge on outside help – the acquisitions of booming bats to create more consistent contact. But president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto warned Wednesday in an interview on Seattle Sports 710-AM that the whiffing issues won’t receive an instant fix.

“I’d like to tell you we could snap our fingers and solve our problem with strikeouts. It’s not going to be that easy,” Dipoto said. “Particularly, it’s not going to be something that we’re able to solve in two weeks (at the July 30 trade deadline). Hopefully, we’re able to solve it over time, and I believe we’ll do that. It’s going to happen developmentally.”

Easier said than done. Said struggles could actually be deemed a developmental shortcoming, considering Seattle has struck out more than the league average for six consecutive seasons. Though players and coaches have come and gone, whiffs stubbornly persist.

But, to Dipoto’s primary point:

If you were waiting for a magic wand to fix the Mariners … you may be waiting for a while.

That’s due in part to an unbalanced market with just five established sellers: the White Sox (27-71), Angels (41-55), A’s (37-61), Rockies (34-63) and Marlins (33-63). Most other teams remain in varying degrees of conceivable contention.

As demand dwarfs supply, the asking price for position players such as the White Sox’s Luis Robert Jr., Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tampa Bay’s Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena, etc., may dramatically inflate. But with the dearth of sad-sack sellers, the pickings are concerningly slim.

“I would like to find a way to create better flow and more contact within our offense. That’s required,” said Dipoto, who raised the possibility of adding a reliever as well. “And again, I don’t know if we’re going to be able to access that on the trade market, but we’re going to try. We’re open to that.

“As we’ve always been, we are open to doing something that has the potential to be dynamic. Again, I don’t know if that’s going to be available as we push into the deadline. Right now, it’s not. And this is as late as we’ve ever gone into a trade deadline where I can honestly say it’s not.”

Granted, fed-up fans will brand the above statement a convenient excuse, more flimsy explanations for why the Mariners won’t make a major move. And indeed, outside of the Castillo trade in 2022, Dipoto has made few substantive waves at the trade deadline in nine-plus seasons in Seattle.

Maybe that move is coming, despite the misdirection. Maybe Dipoto will pair Robert with Julio Rodriguez to form MLB’s most athletic outfield. Maybe he’ll sacrifice the farm system to bring Guerrero’s bat south of the border. Maybe, for better or worse, he’ll push his chips into the pot.

But more likely, the Mariners will make incremental moves. They’ll add ingredients.

In which case, their comprehensive crest depends on the current roster – on whether an underperforming core can find a collective rhythm. Despite sluggish starts, Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver have proved to be second-half players across their accomplished careers. Shortstop J.P. Crawford also excelled in the second half last season, posting a .282/.401/.492 slash line with 11 homers and 32 RBIs in his final 62 games.

The second half starts Friday, against a team that took off while the Mariners tumbled. Most likely, it’ll take more than an active trade deadline to outrun the Astros – to prove this particular wave has more room to rise.