Analysis: Ranking the best Mariners trade targets as deadline nears

SEATTLE – The Mariners need a bat. You know it. They know it. Everyone in baseball knows it.

And we know this: The Mariners’ front office will be thorough in its pursuit of an offensive upgrade over the next 12 days.

Given the uncertain state of the market, however, there’s no clear path for the front office to find that slugger before the July 30 trade deadline. There are some interesting options, though, and here’s a look at some who would help the Mariners.

Tier I: Ideal fits

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays

Christian Walker, 1B, Diamondbacks

LaMonte Wade Jr., 1B/OF, Giants

Isaac Paredes, 3B, Rays

All four of these sluggers would offer the two things the Mariners’ lineup needs most – contact and on-base skills. All four, however, seem unlikely to be moved at the deadline.

The 25-year-old Guerrero would be the most coveted player on the market – if the Blue Jays were to make him available. At this point, there have been no clear indications that they’d be willing to do that. Guerrero and shortstop Bo Bichette are under club control through 2025. If the Blue Jays shift gears and do entertain offers, the Mariners are one of the few clubs with the type of high-upside prospects that could get a deal done – and they would absolutely have to take a big swing at Guerrero in that scenario.

Walker, a well-rounded 33-year-old first baseman, is scheduled to hit free agency at season’s end. Coming off its NL pennant last season, Arizona invested heavily in adding to its roster over the winter, and after a slow start the D-backs have turned things around, entering the break with a 49-48 record and sitting just one game back of the Mets for the NL’s final wild-card spot. Would they really deal their most consistent middle-of-the-order bat?

Wade, 30, doesn’t have star power, but his offensive profile is perfect for what the Mariners’ need. He lacks major pop – 17 home runs in 135 games last season, and just three homers in 64 games this season – but his .311 batting average and .438 on-base percentage in 64 games this season (and a .356 career OBP) would represent significant upgrades near the top of the M’s lineup. Plus, Wade is a left-handed hitter who offers positional flexibility (first base, corner outfield or DH). Again, the big question is whether the Giants, at 47-50, will be buyers or sellers at the end of the month.

Of this group, Paredes might be the most likely to be moved. The Rays are one of the few teams who have reportedly signaled a willingness to deal major-league pieces, and Paredes and first baseman Yandy Diaz are the most intriguing. The 25-year-old Paredes made his first All-Star appearance this past week, and he has 15 homers, 50 RBIs and an .823 OPS in 91 games. The concern here is cost: The Rays, rightfully, would presumably have a high asking price, and Paredes’ projected salary in arbitration over the next few years could be limiting for the Mariners’ budget. The concern with Diaz is his age (he’ll be 33 in a few weeks) and his precipitous decline in production.

Tier II: Volatile sluggers

Luis Robert Jr., CF, White Sox

Jazz Chisholm Jr., OF/2B, Marlins

Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays

All three players come with red flags.

Robert is the one hitter known to be available on the market who would strike real fear in opposing pitchers. That alone should make him attractive to the Mariners. But his lengthy injury history is a concern, and the White Sox asking price is quite high.

Chisholm is a fascinating talent but a mercurial personality. Fellow players voted him as MLB’s “most overrated” player in a recent poll from The Athletic, and he has also been limited by injuries throughout his career. Even with all that, he would be a worthwhile gamble for a team like the Mariners who need his rare blend of power and speed.

It was just more than a year ago that Arozarena was starting in left field at T-Mobile Park for the American League All-Star team (and making a great leaping catch at the wall in the first inning). But he’s in the midst of his worst season, with a .202/.309/.362 (.671 OPS) slash line. Is he past his prime or a good buy-low candidate?

Tier III: High-leverage armsTanner Scott, LHP, Marlins

Pete Fairbanks, RHP, Rays

Jason Adam, RHP, Rays

These might be the best three relievers available, and there are a handful of others are on the market who could be helpful for a Mariners bullpen that has had injury issues throughout the season. But the Mariners will likely turn to less-expensive options to fortify the bullpen. Gregory Santos made his M’s debut for the M’s last week – and he appears to be worth the wait – and lefty Gabe Speier could be activated off the injured list as soon as Friday. One name to watch: Hunter Cranton, whom the Mariners selected in the third round of the MLB draft earlier this week. Cranton has a fastball that sits in the high 90s and a slider in high 80s, and he’s going to be on the fast track to the big leagues – perhaps arriving as soon as this summer.

Tier IV: Useful role players

Danny Jansen, C, Blue Jays

Tommy Pham, OF, White Sox

Jansen, a free agent after this season, could offer the Mariners a reliable third catching option and split time at DH.

Pham, a well-traveled veteran, is the surest bet of anyone to get traded by July 30. Dealt at the deadline last year, he homered three times in the playoffs for the Diamondbacks.

Tier V: Wild card

Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox

No, the Mariners don’t need a starting pitcher. That’s the last thing they need.

But what happens if they whiff at their attempts to add a bat? What if no difference-making slugger becomes available?

What’s the backup plan?

If the goal is to make the club better, the Mariners would still need to do something to upgrade the roster, and Crochet is the best pitcher out on the market. He’s also affordable – with just an $800,000 salary this season and under club control through 2026.

Crochet would provide injury insurance for young Bryan Woo. The Mariners would need to get creative to fit Crochet in the pitching staff. Woo or Bryce Miller could serve as swingmen in the rotation/bullpen. Or you could push Crochet to the bullpen – he has experience there and would be a weapon in that role in, say, a playoff series, should the Mariners get there.